With some spare time I thought I would attempt a new segment that will name my choice for Goalie of the Week in all three CHL leagues.  This award will aspire to award those goalies that truly make a difference on their teams and will strive to recognize that are often overlooked by others.

QMJHL

Domenic Graham (DRU) - Domenic faced 73 shots this weekend and stopped 70 of them.  What is more remarkable is that 40 of them were dangerous shots. On Friday night Graham held his team in the game long enough for Drummondville to tie the game with seconds left in the game.  The game went to a shootout where Grahame allowed 2 goals for the shootout loss but his effort was recognized with the game's first star.  Saturday Graham faced 28 shots, 14 of those scoring chances, against Rimouski. Domenic only allowed 1 goal and held on for a 2-1 Stolen win - earning the game's second star.  Graham is a 17-year old with a late birthday - so he isn't NHL draft eligible until 2013.  Look for him to be one of the top ranked goalies in that draft as he has logged a lot of minutes and played better than others his age.

OHL

Mathias Niederberger (BAR) -  Niederberger earned two shutouts this weekend, one of those a Stolen Win on Friday against Mississauga.  While Mathias wasn't extremely busy with 23 shots he played with no margin for error as his team held on to a 1-0 win to the end.  Niederberger was awarded first star honours for the shutout.  His second shutout came against the Soo Greyhounds on Saturday with a 5-0 victory. While his team's 5 goals disqualified this as a Stolen Win, he still played a solid game including a penalty shot stop against Greyhound sniper Nick Cousins. Mathias again earned the first star for the second shutout in a row.  This is his first season in the OHL as he comes to Barrie as a 19-year old from Germany.  This weekend's effort will help Mathias break into the top 10 of my OHL rankings this coming week.

WHL

Damien Ketlo (LTH) - Damien puts on a show this week in Brandon and Regina with TWO Stolen Wins.  He Friday night effort in Brandon helped his team to a 4-2 win even though his team was outshot 43-34.  Ketlo was awarded the game's first star for that effort.   Then Lethbridge was completely outplayed in Regina where the shots were 47-13 for the Pats!  Damien fought off a lot of rubber to steal his second win with 45 saves in a 3-2 victory.  For the second night in a row Ketlo earns the first star honours.  Ketlo is a 20-year old that moved from Regina to Lethbridge this season.  He is the type of goalie that has remained under the radar because he has always played for weak teams.  For his four seasons in the WHL he has never played on a team that allows less than 33 shots per game.  He has played a lot of minutes and seen a lot of rubber - the type of goalie that scouts wrongly overlook.

For those that follow my site you will know that I have been working on a new way of evaluating goalies - using situational stats instead of shots or goals.  For the goalie that wins 6-5 the stats are not very flattering.  Even if the opposing team shelled the goalie with 20 shots in the 3rd period and the goalie held on to ensure the win - he gets nothing but a hit to his GAA and SPCT by allowing 5 goalies.  Certainly that fighting spirit to win games is worth something - arguably more than shots and goals.  When a goalie allows those goals can be more revealing about his character than those cold numbers.  So I sat down and reviewed all OHL games this season and created my Stolen Wins, Blown Wins, and Quality-Average-Weak Game stats.  Here's what I found....

First is my 'Quality Start' stat.  It is awarded to a goalie that played a solid game and gave their team a chance to win.  A quality start can involve a loss as well as a win - its not situational but an overall scoring of each start.  Stolen Wins also count as quality starts.  These stats are expressed as a percentage of games started that a goalie played a quality game.

The OHL average is 49% for quality starts - so nearly half the games that an OHL goalie starts result in a quality start.  Now for the other end of this stat.  You can see here that Murray only plays 1 in 4 games as a quality game - half of the league average and a third of the leagues best goalies.  Here are the 5 lowest quality start scores....

Now for the heroic stat.  This stat reveals when a goalie single handedly wins a game.  When their team doesn't come through with lots of offense but the goalie ensures the win - they earn a 'Stolen Win'.  Keep in mind this is a tough stat to earn.  A goalie getting a shut-out may not earn this stat - if the goalies' team scores 8 goals for a 8-0 win then it could be reasoned that just about anyone could have played net to earn that win.  Remember - these are situational stats, not literal.  So here are the top 10 goalies that are most capable of winning a game by themselves on any given night....

So once every 4 games the Kitchener duo win the game for their team.  Another way to look at this stat is that these games may NOT have been wins without this goalie.  If a team's goalies have a lot of Stolen Wins then then the success of the team relies mainly on goaltending.  The OHL average for Stolen Wins is 11%.

So the next stat is very dark.  This is one you DON'T want to lead.  This is the 'Blown Win' stat.  This means the team scored enough goals and provided enough defense for most goalies to win - but the goalie still found a way to let in enough goals to blow the game.  This stat is also hard to earn but when it happens - the blame lies solely with the goalie for the loss.

Now don't be confused here.  It IS possible for a goalie to have many quality starts and even steal games while being on this list. It simply means that when they are off their game, they are really off, and it turns a potential win into a loss.  Goalies that have high stolen win numbers AND high blown win numbers are often considered streaky.  The average OHL goalie has 5% blown wins.

Lastly I posted the weak game rankings.  These are games that a goalie plays worse than average.  It may result in a loss or blown win but also could be a win where it was a shooting match and goaltending wasn't the difference.  I posted the goalies with the LEAST amount of weak games.  So this stat reveals who is LEAST likely to have a weak start.

The average number of weak games for OHL goalies so far this season is 32%.  The goalies on this list are least likely to have a bad game.

Each stats stands as its own entity.  How you measure a goalies strengths determines which stat holds more value.  If you like a goalie that plays a steady game and doesn't lose the game for you then you'd like someone with a low Blown Win percent and low Weak start number but wouldn't care so much about stolen wins.  If you think a great goalie is measured by how many games he can steal on his own - then Stolen Wins would be important.  I guess the perfect goalie would be the one that has lots of Stolen Wins, no blown games and mostly quality starts - but finding that goalie may only come once in a while.

Feel free to email me with any questions.  IF there is enough interest in these numbers I may extend them to the WHL, QMJHL or even NHL. Enjoy!

You all have seen for yourself that things have changed drastically for the Soo Greyhounds since Jack Campbell arrived.  I mean the Hounds were 10-7-0-0 in the first 17 games - since they have been 9-16-2-2 in 29 games - ouch  So I wanted to run some numbers to see what has happen to Campbell since the trade and the same for Murray.
Before I get too far I just wanted to point out that I did do an article in November, on my goalie site (goalierankings.com) where I suggested that Dubas overpaid for Campbell.  You can find that article here http://www.goalierankings.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=127:jack-campbell-trade&catid=16:articles

So first lets look at Jack Campbell - when he was at Windsor compared to now with the Hounds....
In Windsor Campbell was 6-3-1 in 12 games.  Upon a game-by-game analysis I had him playing 45% of his games quality starts, 27% average games and 27% weaker than average starts.  Of those games he Stole the Win 27% of the time and never Blew a single win (see the article below for what a Stolen Win and Blown Win are)
Now with the Hounds we find that Jack has been 7-6-2 in 17 games.  Still above .500! My analysis shows that Jack has 56% quality starts (slight MORE than Windsor), 14% average starts and 31% Weak Starts (again about the same as Windsor).  For the Hounds he has Stolen Wins 25% of the time and Blown Wins 13% of the time.
So in other words - Jack has played consistently from Windsor to the Soo - all that has changed is the team in front of him.  He has blown more wins in the Sault - but not by much. 
So one could argue that Jack has done what has been expected of him - nothing more and nothing less.  I have doubted from last season that Campbell was an elite goalie in the OHL.  I know this opinion differs from others out there but I'd say his better than most - but not as good as the best.  If Dubas thought he was getting a goalie that would make a huge difference then he was mistaken - but he did get the solid goaltending that Campbell offers.

Now onto Murray - 
Before the arrival of Campbell you find that Murray was 9-4-0 in 13 games.  A closer look does show that only 31% of those games were quality starts, while 46% where not.  The team appears to have carried Murray to start the season.  Another look shows that Murray Stole the Win 15% of the time - and Blew the Chance at a Win 8% of the time.  So he didn't rob many games but also didn't cost many - just kind of held the course as the team played well in front of him.
Now lets look at Murray since Campbell.  He is 2-11-1 in 16 games and has been pulled in 21% of his starts- ouch.  He has only posted 13% of his starts as quality ones, while 79% have been Poor starts.  He has Stolen Wins only 7% of the time and now Blows the Potential Win 21% of the time.
That is a noticeable difference.  Murray's play was acceptable for a 17-year old in Sept-Oct but the wheels have fallen off since.

Is this the team or goalie?  The team now allows over 34 shots per game against now but only allowed 30 against per game in the first two months.  So defensive play has obviously worsened.  But Murray has also taken the trade poorly.  He is not playing as well as he was earlier - the indicators that are independent of traditional stats show the decline.  IF Jack's stats had a drastic decline since the trade then I could buy the argument that this is all about a weakening team - but that isn't the case.  Yes the team is worse but Murray has also declined.
Why?  One could argue that the Greyhounds have done it again.  They O'Haganed Murray.  They started the season with the youngster in the drivers seat and then kicked him into the trunk.  Bringing Campbell in has not helped Murray.  I know there are/were some people out there saying that Murray would benefit from the tutoring of a goalie like Campbell -  sorry the proof is in the results - it shows the opposite has happened.
Many now must wonder why make the deal? - The Hounds were playing great early in the season and the Campbell trade has marked the turning point in this disastrous turn-around. 

The other factor to consider is that Campbell is currently stealing 18% more wins than Murray.  That would be the difference of 3 wins since October.  In other words Campbell has earned the team 6 more points than what Murray would earn by himself.  Looking at the current standings one would see that this terrible season would be even worse - the team would be well behind Guelph.  So acquiring Campbell has given the Hounds a chance at making the playoffs - but something tells me that this wasn't Dubas' intent when making the trade.

In closing I'd say Campbell performed where I thought he would - he isn't the superstar that some expected and so those people would be dissappointed.  Murray has weakened since the trade but isn't responsible for the 16 losses since October (I would hold him accountable for only 3 of them.)  Overall the latest misfortune for the Hounds could be blamed more on the team than the goalies.....and that's coming from someone who is quick to point out when a goalie is at fault.

For those that have browsed my articles on this site you will know that I often ridicule mainstream goaltending evaluation techniques.  I do this because they are wrong.  Time and time again average goalies are highly touted because of the strength of their team than their own ability. Likewise good goalies are often overlooked because they play on a weak team.  So on goes my quest to reveal those hidden gems and reveal the phonies.  Well I have developed another technique for the tool box used to TRUELY evaluate goalies.

First I have broken each goalie's game into either a Good, Average or Poor game.  This is based on the number and quality of shots in a game.  The reason this is important because a few bad games can make make an otherwise impressive streak look only average.  This was just the start.....When a goalie allows his goals against is even more critical.

A goalie that allows 5 goals against in a 7-5 win and holds on to win in low scoring close games is more valuable than a goalie that earns a shutout in an 8-0 win but blows a lead in tight scoring affairs.  I call this the Grant Fuhr factor - Fuhr was famous in the 80's for allowing a LOT of goals but always making the big saves necessary to win games.  He may have allowed 5 or 6 goals a game but if his team scored 7 goals for, he'd make sure that he'd never allow 7 goals against - although allowing 6 may have been quite possible!

So I came up with 2 new stats.  The first is called 'Stolen Wins'  the other is called 'Blown Wins'.  Let me describe each stat...

A Stolen Win is when a team wins because of the goalies effort.  If a goalie allows less goals in a game then what an average goalie would have allowed and this effort was the difference between winning or not - then that is a 'Stolen Win'.  Imagine a team wins 2-0.   The winning team scores 2 goals on 17 shots.  The losing team scores 0 goals on 32 shots against.  The average goalie would have allowed 3 goals against - turning this win into a loss.  Likewise if the same game happen to be a 5-0 win then this would NOT have been a 'Stolen Win' because even if the average goalie allowed 3 goals, the outcome still would have been a win (5-3 instead of 5-0)

A Blown Win is actually a loss.  This occurs when a goalie allows more goals against then an average goalie would have allowed and this resulted in a loss.  So if a team losses 3-5 and only has 20 shots against.  The average goalie may have only allowed 2 goals against - thus turning the loss into a win and showing how this was a Blown Win.  Likewise if the same team lost the game 0-3 and allowed 20 shots against this would NOT be a Blown Win.  Even if the goalie stopped all the shots or the number an average goalie would have allowed then this would have still been a loss, since the team didn't score any goals to help win.

These two new stats can be quite revealing.  It really isolated games that were truely won by the goalies effort or lost because of the goalies weakness.  Certainly you would want a goalie with more Steals than Blown games.   TO make the stats relative to other goalies I turn it into a percentage compared to games starts.  Each goalies Stolen Winss and Blown Wins are divided by games started to come up with the new stats.  So let's put it into practice.

Since some people are so convinced of Central Scouting's infallibility, lets look at their top 4 North American goalies with these stats...

I also through in the percentage of times a goalie was pulled.  Quite interesting results.  Jon Gillies of the USHL looks quite remarkable.  Over 30% of his starts result in him being responsible for the win.  That number i almost twice as good as Subban - the next closest!  Indiana would be in a world of trouble without Gillies in net!

You should be able to see why I am SO skeptical of Murray and Whitley's high CSB rankings.  Those two only steal 1 of every 20 games compared to Gillies' 1 in 3!  Furthermore they are both 2 to 3 times more likely to blow a game that should have been a win.  Also note the numer of Good starts compared to Poor starts - wouldn't you want a goalie that plays more good games than bad?

What I like about these stats are that they are independent of the team's ability or opponent's strength.  All that matters is how well they play and if that had an impact on their team winning or losing.

So lets compare CSB's top 4 against MY top four....

All but Altshuller have impressive Stolen Win numbers.  1 in 5 times they win games by themselves.  Altshuller finds himself ranked so high not because of his ability to steal wins but his ability to play well and rarely cost a team the win.  Only 1 in 4 times does Altshuller have a poor start - compared to every other game for Murray and Whitley.  Not to mention that Altshuller only blows a potential win 1 in every 25 starts!

I find these new numbers fascinating and find that that they really give insight on how a goalie wins (or loses) and separates to best from the rest.  The work to determine these stats can be tedious but well worth the time.  Anyone wanted some detailed stats of this nature done for any specific goalies then just drop me an email.

UPDATE:

I had a request for John Gibson of the Kitchener Rangers.  I have Gibson ranked as one of the top goalies in the CHL this season - so I figured it would be interesting to see how he did.  Here is the output - pretty impressive!

Never pulled.  Never a poor game.  Steals the win over one third of the time.  Never blows a win - just great numbers.