I have had server issues for this past week but they have been resolved and we are back!  Sorry for any inconvenience.  I will try to get things updated and then we need to start looking at some playoff hockey!

It may seem a stretch to think that the pounding of the hooves could bring anything to goaltending but let me try to convince you otherwise.  I have always been interested in the statistical side of horse racing.  The details in a program are much like the charts you'd see Bill James do for baseball.  Some people can take all those stats and turn them into a fairly accurate prediction of future performance - the secret is knowing what to look for.

If at the start of every horse race we looked at the fastest race time for each horse or even the race time for the last race and tried to use that to predict the outcome, we would fail miserably in predicting the winner. Just like if we look at the save percentage of the two goalies and tried to use that to predict the game winner - we would again fail.  The secret in horse racing, as in goaltending, is knowing what to look for.

Horse racing handicappers use a term called an 'easy trip', also sometimes called a pocket trip.  This is where a horse parks itself behind a front runner, runs the whole race around the track on the rail, and pulls out to win after the front runner tires.  Other than following another horse, this horse did little work to earn this win; he didn't face any adversity. The horse that took the lead or the horses behind that made some moves, went outside and tried to pass other horses, all did more work than the horse in the pocket.  Even though that pocket horse earned the win, he benefited from his situation not his own ability to overcome challenges.

Can you see where I'm heading here for goaltenders?  A goalie that plays on a strong team and takes easier shots than normal is that 'pocket horse'.  Sure he earns the win but how much of that is his ability and how much is his situation?  Compare that to the goalie that plays on the worse team;  he loses over and over again because he fields many difficult shots each night because his team is substandard.  The secret is to find those goalies that are overcoming adversity (passing on the outside and coming from behind) and actually improving the results of their team, not just benefiting from it.

Of course the quality of shots cannot always be dictated by shots against.  In logging tens of thousands of shots, at various levels of hockey, I have found that any given game's shot total can mean very little to shot quality.  However the average shots against per game over a season can show much more.  This may seem to be a contradiction but over time the teams allowing more shots against per game are allows more quality shots against.  Most defensively weak teams allow more than the average number of shots a game against and most strong teams allow fewer.  I have seen games where a goalie only has 10 shots in a game - of which most were scoring chances; but averaged over time you would see that a team allowing an average of only 10 shots per game against actually allows very few scoring chances.

These generalities cannot be held as definitive truth - and the analysis of a goalie can only be complete when watching him take each shot.  Just like in horse racing you can't judge a horse based on one line in a program - you need to see the actual race to know how much effort was put forth.  One thing that comes up time and time again is that goalies who post good stats, AND see a lot of rubber, develop into better goalies than those goalies that are rarely challenged.  So when you look at a goalie that is piling up the wins, be sure to think of that horse getting the 'pocket ride' and check to make sure he is being challenged and working to contribute to that success.

Below I've ranked the NHL prospects that are playing in the CHL this season.  We're far enough into the seasons to see how these draft picks are shaping up and if they continue to move towards the pros.

1st - John Gibson (KIT-OHL)(ANA 2nd round 2011)  John's move to the OHL has gone very well.  I have him ranked as one of the top goalies in the CHL and is only 18.  He is well ahead of the goalie learning curve and is a 2nd round pick that Anaheim can be proud of.

2nd - Matt Mahalak (PLY-OHL)(CAR 6th round 2011)  Matt has exceded my expectation and is doing very well of an 18-year old.  He has challenged Scott Wedgewood for the starting spot in Plymouth and held his own.

3rd - Tyler Bunz (MH-WHL)(EDM 5th round 2010)  Tyler has continued to improve and should have a shot at making the jump to the AHL next season.  He will certainly move up the depth charts if he can take Medicane Hat deep into the playoffs.

4th - Louis Domingue (QUE-QMHL)(PHX 5th round 2010) Louis has showed steady improvement over last season.  He is being pushed for the starting spot by a good prospect but has held his own and played well for coach Patrick Roy.

5th - Calvin Pickard (SEA-WHL)(COL 2nd round 2010)  Calvin has consistently been a top ranked goalie for me over the last couple seasons. He started out slow this season but has turned things around lately. If Calvin played on a better team then he would get the national recognition he deserves.

6th - Mathieu Corbeil (SJ-QMJHL)(CLB 4th 2010)  Mathieu has shown a huge improvement over last season and makes the Sea Dogs a national threat again.  He is a great example of a goalie that played on a weak team and didn't get a chance to show his potential until traded to a contender.

7th - Nathan Lieuwen (KOO-WHL)(BUF 6th round 2011)  Nathan's playoff performance last spring went a long way to getting attention in the draft.  He has drastically improved over last season and now ranks among the top 5 goalies of the WHL.

8th - Laurent Brossoit (EDM-WHL)(CLG 6th round 2011) Laurent has shown steady improvment as an 18-year old and is poised to show his value for Edmonton is the coming post-season.

9th - Garret Sparks (GUE-OHL)(TOR 7th round 2011)  Toronto scored with this late-rounder as Garret has played well enough to steal the starting spot in Guelph. He has shown steady improvement and should be one of the top 10 golaies in the OHL next season.

10th - Petr Mrazek (OTT-OHL)(DET 5th round 2010)  Petr was flashy in the World Juniors but hasn't been as dominent this season for Ottawa, as he was last year.  Still a quality pick for Detroit that should make the jump to the minors next season.

11th - Scott Wedgewood (PLY-OHL)(NJ 3rd round 2010) Scott found lots of exposure at the World Juniors but his play in the OHL has flat-lined.  I have him similar to last season with no improvement and the younger Mahalak has kept pace in a battle for the starting spot for Plymouth.  Has one of the worst shoot-out SPCT in the OHL.

12th - Kent Simpson (EVT-WHL)(CHI 2nd round 2010) Kent's ratings have not improved this season. This would normally be a concern but his team is much worse this season.  He is seeing more than 37 shots per game and still hanging in the top half of my WHL ratings.

13th - Mac Carruth (POR-WHL)(CHI 7th round 2010) Another goalie that is victim of a weaker team this season.  His  ratings have declined and needs to do better to get ahead of Simpson in Chicago's depth chart.

14th - Johan Mattsson (SUD-OHL)(CHI 7th round 2011) The glut of Chicago goalies continues.  He was one of the better young goalies in Sweden last season.  He has been steady for Sudbury; not stealing many games and not costing any either.

15th - Igor Bobkov (KNG-OHL)(ANA 3rd round 2009) Igor spend a brief stint in the AHL last spring but returns to the OHL as an overager.  He is stuck in OHL hell, also known as Kingston, and faces a ton of rubber each game.  This is good for development as long as his confidence remains in tact.

16th - Christopher Gibson (CHI-QMJHL)(LA 2nd round 2011) Christopher has dropped in my rating this season.  This is odd considering the fact that his team has improved much over last season.  This could be a red-flag and without a great playoff run and/or improvement next season, this could signal trouble.

17th - Mark Visentin (NIA-OHL)(PHX 1st round 2010) Mark showed great strides last season but started this year poorly.  He has turned things around since the World Juniors and has played nearly perfect hockey lately.  He needs to continue this run into the playoffs and the Pheonix rookie camp this fall to maintain his stock.

18th - Jack Campbell (SOO-OHL)(DAL 1st round 2010) Did Windsor trade Jack because the Sault sold the farm to get him - or did they realize he wasn't developing as expected?  I have Jack with slight improvement this season over last but still not putting up the ratings he should have for a 1st round pick.  Plays best when the game is on the line.

19th - David Honzik (VIC-QMJHL)(VAN 3rd round 2011) Has shown little to no improvement over last season and ranks towards the bottom of the QMJHL for the last two seasons.

20th - Jordan Binnington (OS-OHL)(STL 3rd round 2011) The Blues had to be caught up in Owen Sound's playoff success when picking Jordan last season.  I have his ratings worsening this season and has slipped to near the bottom of the OHL.

Subban's rankings for the upcoming draft have been fixed.  Turns out that for the last 6-8 weeks there was an old link in my draft eligible list that was using my ratings from last season for Subban.  So with the correction he has jumped back up to near the top spot. It appears Malcolm is now back from a groin injury and we can see how he performs heading towards the end of the OHL season.